5th
Accuracy Rank

Heramb_42

About:

- Research fellow at Center for AI and Digital Policy
-A fourth-year undergrad at IIT Roorkee

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023? -0.000796
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India? -0.000077
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? -0.000022
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria? 0.000221
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict? -0.000012
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) -0.000032
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.447325
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.000005
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? -0.00002
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? 0.0
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? -0.00001
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) 0.00046
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.170036
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? -0.000013
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023? 0.288211
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023? -0.00149
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? -0.000428
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.001181
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.00465
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? 0.003404
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