RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	0.067532
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.010287
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	0.191575
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.021238
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?	0.19664
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	0.011209
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.001845
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?	-0.000061
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	0.016733
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	0.049198
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.023136
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.13949
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	-0.052085
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	0.001548
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)	0.014933
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.001022
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	-0.093343
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	0.014969
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	0.55121
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.003678

Himanshu

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