Himanshu

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CSE-AI-Robotics

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? 0.016856
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.010405
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.010079
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? 0.39397
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.266335
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.175784
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? 0.002276
    Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024) 0.000257
    Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024) -0.164539
    Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? -0.005588
    Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.000008
    Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? 0.0
    Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? 0.015264
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? 1.386618
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? 0.0
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? 0.373907
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? 0.2349
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? 0.242507
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000508
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? 0.091293
     
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