RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	0.000292
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.000017
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?	0.11664
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?	0.000562
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	-0.064034
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.435759
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.001351
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	-0.000002
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC	What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?	-0.011746
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.001493
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	0.017627
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	-0.3709
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.003285
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?	0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?	0.01161
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?	-0.003739
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.094802
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	0.182164
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.000091
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.01968

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