July just around the corner, but menaces too.
0.224137
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
71
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 22 | 329 | 71 | 1417 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 64 | 30 | 653 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 19 | 50 | 24 | 196 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 56 | 11 | 284 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Yes
98%
(-1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
hypervigilance works
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Mar 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(+2%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
97%
(-2%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Raising due to the "stern warning" military exercises this week. Mostly a response to American planned buildup in Japan and perhaps also Panama Canal stuff. Small chance it leads to a blockade or attack, but it also won't be the last of that size this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things go wrong in military exercises
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-7%)
Yes
92%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering as this has not been announced and seems to be clearly not in Huawei`s best interest
Files
Why might you be wrong?
OpenRan takes off and problems are solved.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 26, 2025 to Sep 26, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Mar 26, 2025 to Sep 26, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Calibrating upwards as enough time has passed since the beginning of this question, and global shocks and risks have only increased.
Why might you be wrong?