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Hinterhunter

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024) 0.000187
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.3709
Feb 13, 2024 04:59AM UTC Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2024 and Feb 13, 2024) 0.136
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? 0.003285
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024) 0.00011
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? 0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? 0.01161
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? -0.003739
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? 0.094802
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? 0.182164
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.000091
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.01968
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? -0.030171
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.054181
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.029992
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.035371
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.001767
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.19858
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.003548
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.027617
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