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Hobbes

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Mar 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) 0.007603
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? 0.041637
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? -0.00353
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024) 0.0002
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024) 0.001074
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.00018
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024) 0.0002
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? -0.005063
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? 0.100123
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen? 0.000072
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? -0.000924
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? -0.000078
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? 0.160872
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? 0.011169
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.0
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.140487
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) -0.000182
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.0004
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.000516
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.082614
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