33rd
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Hobbes

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022? -0.046232
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.005845
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.104958
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.056548
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.098307
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.01005
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.00115
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022) -0.003255
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000177
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022) 0.0012
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? -0.045426
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022) 0.004968
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.002073
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022) 0.0
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22? -0.032709
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022) 0.0
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022? -0.000009
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022? -0.00446
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.196674
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? -0.05621
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