Hobbes

Starting with a relatively normal distribution, skewed towards the higher end of historical trends. Rationale:

The major spike in 2022 obviously corresponded to the start of the war in Ukraine and various Kremlin disinformation initiatives connected with that and the push to avoid Germany arming Ukraine. The high in 2021 on the other hand was due to the German Federal election in September 2021.

There will be another Federal election taking place in September 2024, within the time period of this forecast. Furthermore it is likely there will be a push to end the war, and disinformation connected with that aimed at a European (and German audience).

In recent days [1] we have seen Russia launch a European-wide sabotage campaign. It is likely it will (a) seek to use disinformation as a means to obfuscate responsibility for this and (b) carry out further such attacks in the future, both to disrupt the arms supply to Ukraine and in the hopes of deterring further support for Kyiv. If this happens it will result in a further spike in the disinformation figures.

[1] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/23/is-russia-behind-recent-arson-attacks-in-europe

It seems highly likely the current strikes will target nuclear sites. Israeli officials have said as much. [1]

[1] https://www.newsweek.com/israel-strike-iran-nuclear-program-idf-middle-east-war-1975016