Well... I feel a bit foolish now.
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israel-says-next-phase-of-war-with-hezbollah-in-lebanon-to-begin-soon
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I don't feel the initiative is likely to be successful, but it is worth noting that the Junta has recently offered to allow the opposition to take part in elections in return for ending the conflict. [1] I am of two minds whether this makes elections more likely or not, if the opposition reject the offer. It might put pressure on the government to demonstrate that the election offer is genuine, by putting a process for the election into place. On the other hand, it seems unlikely you'd want to give something away for free if you're attempting to use it as a concession in a deal.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-urges-armed-opposition-join-political-fold-elections-2024-09-26/
Interesting article. But the rebels have already said no.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj04955442ro
I always find it amusing when a brutal military dictatorship that is losing suddenly wants to work together in peace and harmony with those that are chasing them out of power. Not surprised they said no.
FTA: Rebel groups have rejected a peace offer from Myanmar’s embattled junta, which is reeling from battlefield losses and defections in a civil war that has dragged on for more than three years.
This is dictatorship's first such outreach since it seized power in 2021. It also comes after a ceasefire brokered by China in the northern Shan state fell apart.
The junta called on ethnic armed groups and "terrorist insurgent groups" to "communicate with us to solve political problems politically", also urging them to join elections planned for next year.
The exiled National Unity Government (NUG) said the offer was not worth considering, adding the junta had no authority to hold an election.
The junta extended an olive branch Thursday as it struggled to fight on multiple fronts and stem a widespread rebellion.
Why do you think you're right?
While it would be irrational not to raise the probability (see also the article which @cmeinel posted from Reuters confirming that there is active consideration [1] so far Israel has succeeded in decimating Hezbollah. They have killed Nasrallah. They have now killed his successor. A declaration is really only relevant at this point for an invasion, and a ground invasion (notwithstanding the fact they are apparently planning on one!) would be a terrible idea. It would drastically increase the cost for Israel's political supporters, likely not be able to achieve any of its aims and meet with resistance from the Lebanese population, who after all are citizens of a sovereign nation with international recognition a more or less functional government.
Why might you be wrong?
They may do it anyway.
Why do you think you're right?
While it would be irrational not to raise the probability (see also the article which @cmeinel posted from Reuters confirming that there is active consideration [1] so far Israel has succeeded in decimating Hezbollah. They have killed Nasrallah. They have now killed his successor. A declaration is really only relevant at this point for an invasion, and a ground invasion (notwithstanding the fact they are apparently planning on one!) would be a terrible idea. It would drastically increase the cost for Israel's political supporters, likely not be able to achieve any of its aims and meet with resistance from the Lebanese population, who after all are citizens of a sovereign nation with international recognition a more or less functional government.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-defence-minister-holding-talks-possible-expansion-offensive-2024-09-28/
Why might you be wrong?
They may do it anyway.
Why do you think you're right?
Pezeshkian has been stubbornly supportive of peace, despite apparent escalations in the proxy conflict. It would be hard for Israel to justify a strike under these circumstances.
An attack on missile sites risks aggravating Russia, whereas Israel has so far attempted to remain fairly neutral in the Ukrainian conflict (disappointing, but unsurprising given the number of Russian Israelis who support Netanyahu's coalition).
Well... I feel a bit foolish now.
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israel-says-next-phase-of-war-with-hezbollah-in-lebanon-to-begin-soon