Hobbes

Well... I feel a bit foolish now.

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israel-says-next-phase-of-war-with-hezbollah-in-lebanon-to-begin-soon

Well... I feel a bit foolish now.

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israel-says-next-phase-of-war-with-hezbollah-in-lebanon-to-begin-soon

I don't feel the initiative is likely to be successful, but it is worth noting that the Junta has recently offered to allow the opposition to take part in elections in return for ending the conflict. [1] I am of two minds whether this makes elections more likely or not, if the opposition reject the offer. It might put pressure on the government to demonstrate that the election offer is genuine, by putting a process for the election into place. On the other hand, it seems unlikely you'd want to give something away for free if you're attempting to use it as a concession in a deal.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-junta-urges-armed-opposition-join-political-fold-elections-2024-09-26/

While it would be irrational not to raise the probability (see also the article which @cmeinel posted from Reuters confirming that there is active consideration [1] so far Israel has succeeded in decimating Hezbollah. They have killed Nasrallah. They have now killed his successor. A declaration is really only relevant at this point for an invasion, and a ground invasion (notwithstanding the fact they are apparently planning on one!) would be a terrible idea. It would drastically increase the cost for Israel's political supporters, likely not be able to achieve any of its aims and meet with resistance from the Lebanese population, who after all are citizens of a sovereign nation with international recognition a more or less functional government.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-defence-minister-holding-talks-possible-expansion-offensive-2024-09-28/

While it would be irrational not to raise the probability (see also the article which @cmeinel posted from Reuters confirming that there is active consideration [1] so far Israel has succeeded in decimating Hezbollah. They have killed Nasrallah. They have now killed his successor. A declaration is really only relevant at this point for an invasion, and a ground invasion (notwithstanding the fact they are apparently planning on one!) would be a terrible idea. It would drastically increase the cost for Israel's political supporters, likely not be able to achieve any of its aims and meet with resistance from the Lebanese population, who after all are citizens of a sovereign nation with international recognition a more or less functional government.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-defence-minister-holding-talks-possible-expansion-offensive-2024-09-28/

I'm not convinced the likelihood has increased that much, despite Israel's recent actions.

Pezeshkian has been stubbornly supportive of peace, despite apparent escalations in the proxy conflict. It would be hard for Israel to justify a strike under these circumstances.

An attack on missile sites risks aggravating Russia, whereas Israel has so far attempted to remain fairly neutral in the Ukrainian conflict (disappointing, but unsurprising given the number of Russian Israelis who support Netanyahu's coalition).

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast