33rd
Accuracy Rank

Hobbes

About:
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0.273283

Relative Brier Score

216

Forecasts

41

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 24 262 216 734
Comments 0 0 12 12 232
Questions Forecasted 0 24 52 42 137
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 23 22 83
 Definitions
New Badge
Hobbes
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than or equal to 59
17%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
50%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
25%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
4%
More than or equal to 90

Starting with a relatively normal distribution, skewed towards the higher end of historical trends. Rationale:

The major spike in 2022 obviously corresponded to the start of the war in Ukraine and various Kremlin disinformation initiatives connected with that and the push to avoid Germany arming Ukraine. The high in 2021 on the other hand was due to the German Federal election in September 2021.

There will be another Federal election taking place in September 2024, within the time period of this forecast. Furthermore it is likely there will be a push to end the war, and disinformation connected with that aimed at a European (and German audience).

In recent days [1] we have seen Russia launch a European-wide sabotage campaign. It is likely it will (a) seek to use disinformation as a means to obfuscate responsibility for this and (b) carry out further such attacks in the future, both to disrupt the arms supply to Ukraine and in the hopes of deterring further support for Kyiv. If this happens it will result in a further spike in the disinformation figures.

[1] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/23/is-russia-behind-recent-arson-attacks-in-europe

Files
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+3%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
0% (-3%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025

It seems highly likely the current strikes will target nuclear sites. Israeli officials have said as much. [1]


[1] https://www.newsweek.com/israel-strike-iran-nuclear-program-idf-middle-east-war-1975016

Files
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Hobbes
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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