passage of time, aligning with crowd forecast.
0.051335
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Agreed with other forecasters that the lack of announcement and Musk's tweet suggest that we're looking at least a few weeks into April.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We never know how SpaceX would surprise us.
Files
Confirmed previous forecast