passage of time, aligning with crowd forecast.
-0.126747
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Agreed with other forecasters that the lack of announcement and Musk's tweet suggest that we're looking at least a few weeks into April.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We never know how SpaceX would surprise us.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(-56%)
Japan
21%
(-36%)
The Netherlands
10%
(-6%)
South Korea
0%
(0%)
Any other country not listed
Lowering the probabilities based on the lack of official announcements. There were some rumors and messages before, but they have not turned into announcements.
Files
Confirmed previous forecast