Hugo-Zhan

Hugo Zhan
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2024 Season Stats

-0.000019

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Hugo-Zhan made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Dec 7, 2023 01:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Nov 7, 2023 to May 7, 2024
99%
No
Nov 7, 2023 to May 7, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

I hope not

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If they do then I’m wrong

Files
VRL made a comment:
Hi @hugo-zhan! Thanks for making your first forecast on INFER. I’d be interested to hear some more details of your thoughts on this question. Would you mind explaining a bit more why you think Iran will not launch missiles or conduct an airstrike?
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Hugo-Zhan earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Hugo-Zhan earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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