In September, it was announced that Iran indicated that uranium enrichment will remain. Moreover, it was disclose that there are cases or enrichment above 60%, a limit approaching nuclear weapons.
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This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2024 01:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Oct 1, 2023 to Apr 1, 2024
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Iran is unlike to abandon the treaty as authorities have pushed to maintain international agreements related to the use of uranium.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The IAEA estimates that Iran has enriched uranium stockpile of more than 29 times the allowed un the Joint Nuclear Plan
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Why might you be wrong?
Iran is unlikely to want to be enrolled in a escalation of tension with Western states.
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As escalation in tensions continue increasing in reference to the Gaza Strip situation, it is unlikely that Arab countries will seek to enhance relations with Israel. There is plenty pressure over the international community.