Passage of time update; confirming
-0.040739
Relative Brier Score
38
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 5 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
6%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
94%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 28%
Passage of time update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Affirming. Updating for passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
7%
(-20%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
93%
(+20%)
More than or equal to 28%
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2024 01:02AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
94%
(+42%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
6%
(-42%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Guessing that Israel's "limited ground operation" in Lebanon now underway may be enough for a 'yes' resolution here. https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-09-30-2024-83ea5f243688f309754ec74850de4238
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Doesn't "count"..?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
27%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
73%
(+3%)
More than or equal to 28%
Closer to the 'crowd' forecast for now
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 28, 2024 05:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Update for passage of time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 28, 2024 05:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
52%
(-18%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
48%
(+18%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Lowering 'yes' for now. ..Possible that an IDF ground invasion could at least be delayed (i.e., to gauge response, continue with air strikes..)
"Official: With strike on Nasrallah, Israel hopes to avoid ground-op in Lebanon" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/official-with-strike-on-nasrallah-israel-hopes-to-avoid-ground-op-in-lebanon/)
Files
Passage of time update