RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2023 11:20PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	-8%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+9%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 04, 2024 05:54PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	97%	+3%	+2%
No	0%	3%	-3%	-2%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 05, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	100%	7%	+93%	-5%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
Georgia	0%	4%	-4%	-1%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 07, 2024 08:07PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 02, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	35%	+65%	+1%
No	0%	65%	-65%	-1%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	0%	24%	-24%	-9%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	100%	39%	+61%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	38%	+62%	-7%
No	0%	62%	-62%	+7%

Javretro2000