Time
0.913949
Relative Brier Score
48
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-25%)
Japan
18%
(-6%)
South Korea
39%
(-31%)
Any other country not listed
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
(-8%)
Intel
Updating for time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Less than 6,000
72%
(0%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
3%
(0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 9,000
No Change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(-25%)
Japan
65%
(-25%)
The Netherlands
24%
(-16%)
South Korea
70%
(-20%)
Any other country not listed
Updated for time and the delayed in Japan and Netherlands support.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-8%)
Less than 5
97%
(+38%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
3%
(-30%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 18
Currently 6 states with only a few days remaining in February
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 200
93%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Why do you think you're right?
Outside: No significant changes from the outside view. Given the structure of the question. Russia has already had more than 200 protests/riots in a single month but has not had more than 400. There is a chance based on other countries of doubling or tripling the monthly average, but very unlikely.
Inside:
@pjp51 and @tpaci agree time is a large limiting factor in this prediction. Once one month remains for the number of protests/riots to significantly decrease.
@pjp51 reference an article showing people disagreeing with Putin/Russia are likely to leave Russia if they're capable. This would result in fewer protests/riots. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-delegation-munich-security-conference/
@tpaci discussed a refusal by China to provide lethal aide to Russia may break the narrative that its not a Russia vs West conflict.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
@tpaci expressed a possibility that given a decrease in US aid, Russian citizens may feel a necessity to take the future into their own hands and will protest/riot more instead of "waiting on the Americans."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-politics-poland-33095abf76875b60ebab3ddf4eede188
Additionally, similar to the previous forecast. The bubble could pop and trends similar to Iran could appear where the number of protests/riots double or triple.
Files
Time