Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:34AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:34AM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 8% | -7% | -6% |
| No | 99% | 92% | +7% | +6% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:35AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:35AM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | 5% | +17% | -1% |
| No | 78% | 95% | -17% | +1% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:38AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 12:38AM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Nov 22, 2024 | 15% | +5% | +2% |
| No | 80% | Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Nov 22, 2024 | 85% | -5% | -2% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:33AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:33AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 21% | -16% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 79% | +16% | +1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:33AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:33AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 1% | +17% | +0% |
| No | 82% | Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 99% | -17% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |