Russia will not risk to put itself in a politically unstable status by changing the president during war.
0.033701
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
accidents happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
Yes
78%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Technology in China is ,still, very ahead in global market. Considering the low cost and high reward that Chinese market provides, I don't think Microsoft, as a private business, will refuse such a economically rewarding option
Files
Why might you be wrong?
International relationship between china and us
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are too many powers and authorities involved beyond the conflict between Israel and Hamas. It will not be solved anytime soon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
World War III or alien invasions.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 18, 2023 06:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18%
Yes
Nov 18, 2023 to May 18, 2024
82%
No
Nov 18, 2023 to May 18, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
The possibility for both Israeli and Saudi officials to publicly acknowledge that they are resuming normalization talks is almost towards zero.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
unpredictability of politics
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2023 05:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Oct 21, 2023 to Nov 21, 2023
The U.S. respond to the Hamas and Israel conflict will only grow the confidence of Israel. Therefore, they will not ceasefire in the near future.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The future of international warfare will be surrounding technological innovation and information. Huawei is especially controlled by the CCP as a semi-governmental corporation. Therefore, I don't think Huawei would sell any of their advanced technology.
Why might you be wrong?