No chance, 11 hours left.
-0.069894
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 858 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 36 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 142 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Monthly Power Forecaster - Dec 2023
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Adjusting to 0% since only 12 hours left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming previous forecast as a result of time passage and lack of news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
One day left to close the question, I confirm previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-19%)
Yes
99%
(+19%)
No
Adjusting upward considering recent forecast and rationale from @cmeinel (https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/113681) and passage of time
Files
New Badge
Monthly Power Forecaster - Nov 2023
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 29, 2024 11:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2023 to Jun 29, 2024
I confirm the previous forecast as there have been no recent breakthroughs that would change it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming previous forecast as only 2 days left
Files
Adjusting to the Current Crowd Forecast level