less than a month left
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 865 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 155 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 146 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It seems that the time left (Jan. 1, 2026) to solve the question may be too short for the outcome to be positive. The new president in the US may also make success a bit more difficult.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
-Geopolitical tensions and technological constraints (likely to intensify after Trump's victory)
-Significant breakthroughs in technology and expertise may take longer to achieve.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China may surprise us
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 30, 2024 12:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2025
100%
(+1%)
No
Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2025
There is no indication that Iranian attacks will target US forces
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-10%)
Yes
100%
(+10%)
No
too short time frame
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
only 1 month left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Adjusting to the Current Crowd Forecast level
Files
Initial forecast, given that less than 30 days remain before the question is resolved, and the still tense situation in the Middle East, I think the probability is zero.