Returned to original pessimistic position following reports of failed talks
-0.34236
Relative Brier Score
97
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 125 | 97 | 586 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 36 | 24 | 83 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 40 |
Definitions |
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Dropping against the balance of probabilities on news the latest round of talks have failed.
Seems increasing unlikely
Shift for time
Update for position that recent strikes make the ceasefire more likely
Update for time
Update for time