24th
Accuracy Rank

MCowley

About:
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-0.34236

Relative Brier Score

97

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 116 97 586
Comments 0 0 3 3 35
Questions Forecasted 0 0 35 24 83
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 40
 Definitions
New Prediction

Update for time

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New Prediction
MCowley
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-2%)
Kuwait
1% (-2%)
Oman
1% (-1%)
Qatar
2% (-3%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (-1%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?

Returned to original pessimistic position following reports of failed talks

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Why might you be wrong?


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New Prediction

Dropping against the balance of probabilities on news the latest round of talks have failed. 

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New Prediction

Seems increasing unlikely

Files
New Prediction

Shift for time

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New Prediction
MCowley
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (+2%)
Kuwait
3% (+2%)
Oman
2% (+1%)
Qatar
5% (+4%)
Saudi Arabia
2% (+1%)
Tunisia

Update for position that recent strikes make the ceasefire more likely

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New Prediction

Update for time

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
MCowley
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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