Returned to original pessimistic position following reports of failed talks
0.005525
Relative Brier Score
171
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 141 | 97 | 586 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 37 | 24 | 83 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 40 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Kuwait
1%
(-2%)
Oman
1%
(-1%)
Qatar
2%
(-3%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(-1%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(-10%)
Yes
53%
(+10%)
No
Dropping against the balance of probabilities on news the latest round of talks have failed.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Seems increasing unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
Shift for time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Kuwait
3%
(+2%)
Oman
2%
(+1%)
Qatar
5%
(+4%)
Saudi Arabia
2%
(+1%)
Tunisia
Update for position that recent strikes make the ceasefire more likely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Update for time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
(0%)
Yes
43%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Update for time