72nd
Accuracy Rank

Mariana_DiazG

Mariana Diaz
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Forecasted Questions

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 03:22PM UTC
(12 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 24% 0%
No 76% 100%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 2% 1%
Oman 3% 2%
Qatar 2% 1%
Saudi Arabia 7% 2%
Tunisia 2% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 100%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:47AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 1% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 5% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 94% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:47AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 9% 1%
No 91% 99%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:58AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 9% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 19% 6%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 02:34AM UTC
(11 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 8%
No 40% 92%
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