Forecasted Questions
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 03:22PM UTC
(10 months ago)
Nov 30, 2023 03:22PM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 0% | +24% | -25% |
| No | 76% | 100% | -24% | +25% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | -4% |
| No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +4% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 2% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
| Oman | 3% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
| Qatar | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 7% | 3% | +4% | -3% |
| Tunisia | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:46AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +2% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:47AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:47AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 5% | 1% | +4% | -3% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 94% | 99% | -5% | +4% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:47AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:47AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 1% | +8% | -7% |
| No | 91% | 99% | -8% | +7% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:58AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:58AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 9% | 9% | +0% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 19% | 7% | +12% | -16% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 02:34AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 02:34AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 22% | +38% | -38% |
| No | 40% | 78% | -38% | +38% |