Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +1% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 3% | -3% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 3, 2026 | Jun 3, 2025 06:04PM | 8% | +92% | +2% |
| No | 0% | Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 3, 2026 | Jun 3, 2025 06:04PM | 92% | -92% | -2% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Mar 3, 2025 to Sep 3, 2026 | Jun 3, 2025 06:04PM | 9% | -9% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Mar 3, 2025 to Sep 3, 2026 | Jun 3, 2025 06:04PM | 91% | +9% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
Mar 3, 2025 06:04PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 37% | +63% | -1% |
| No | 0% | 63% | -63% | +1% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 07:21PM
(22 days ago)
Apr 1, 2025 07:21PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025 | May 1, 2025 07:21PM | 5% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025 | May 1, 2025 07:21PM | 95% | +5% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 07:47PM
(21 days ago)
Apr 1, 2025 07:47PM
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 0% | 10% | -10% | +0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 0% | 26% | -26% | -3% |