MaricarmenCP

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Relative Brier Score
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Questions Forecasted

19

Forecasts

0

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Forecasts 2 2 53 19 54
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Questions Forecasted 2 2 13 11 14
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 Definitions
New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Togo
0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?

Russia is making good progress in Ukraine and its main priority will be to acquire as much Ukrainian territory as possible. So, Russia will concentrate its main forces in Ukraine, and after getting all its objectives in that country Moscow will reinforce its presence in Africa.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Russia would perceive that the international scenario is favorable to increase its presence in Africa, so it could deploy Wagner Group soldiers in more African countries.

Files
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 3, 2025 06:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 3, 2025 to Sep 3, 2025
100%
No
Mar 3, 2025 to Sep 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

North Korea will not be engaged in any kind of kinetic military action against South Korea in the next six months because Pyonyang has other short-term priorities. For Kim Jong Un increasing North Korean military power trough alliances, such as that with Russia, is more important than attacking South Korea. In addition, Pyongyang is not willing to gain bad international publicity by attacking its Southern neighbor.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

North Korea may want to prove that it is always ready to attack any country that threatens its security, including South Korea.

Files
New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 3, 2025 06:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (0%)
Yes
Mar 3, 2025 to Sep 3, 2025
0% (0%)
No
Mar 3, 2025 to Sep 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (0%)
Yes
Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 3, 2026
0% (0%)
No
Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 3, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
MaricarmenCP
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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