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146th
Accuracy Rank
Mauricio_B
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
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Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
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Iran Nuclear Program
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metric-question
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
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Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
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U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
0.402977
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?
0.016434
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?
0.053877
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?
0.038482
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
0.267383
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
-0.000001
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
-0.000003
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.13658
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.009091
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
0.219761
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
-0.00178
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?
0.090911
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
0.248049
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
0.399491
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)
0.0
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
-0.377795
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
-0.019779
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?
-0.003473
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
-0.020655
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
0.159264
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