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Mauricio_B

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.000174
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center? -0.046217
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000075
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.00044
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? -0.00015
May 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023? -0.099921
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? 0.645342
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022? 0.171332
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? -0.103518
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? 0.000053
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications? 0.235037
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? 0.993393
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.050695
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.117531
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.000791
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.013913
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? -0.194166
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.017268
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? -0.091679
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022? -0.327128
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