RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.159961
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.003109
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	-0.000322
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.000145
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.003806
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	0.005395
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	-0.089518
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.035826
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	0.159979
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.126092
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.016274
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.000104
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	-0.102445
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.00036
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?	0.177342
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	0.279238
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.001316
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.000733
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.006573
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.000266

MauroC

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