MauroC

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? 0.214131
    Jun 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024) -0.000774
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? 0.159961
    May 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024) -0.001293
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.003109
    Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024) -0.000029
    Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? -0.000322
    Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) 0.001976
    Feb 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024) 0.000145
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.003806
    Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) 0.005395
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.089518
    Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.035826
    Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? 0.159979
    Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.126092
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.016274
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.000104
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? -0.102445
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.00036
    Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? 0.177342
     
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