1st
Accuracy Rank

MrLittleTexas

About:

Show more
View All Badges ยป
Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran? 0.016835
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces? 0.001527
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? 0.013804
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? 0.029132
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? 0.021072
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? -0.017284
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000613
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.081416
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? -0.009701
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.014118
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.106436
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.192413
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) -0.000127
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.0
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.00001
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) -0.009807
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) 0.155039
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.0
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? -0.033912
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.0
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel