They've controlled Deir ez-Zor territory for ~5 years and the others for longer. Maybe 20% per year baseline that they lose one of the key territories, if war was still active; but it's cooled down a lot since then, so the chance of e.g. losing territory to conquest by the Syrian government seems low. However with Trump possibly pulling the hundreds of millions in funding SDF gets each year, I think this is a relatively high probability.
-1.888395
Relative Brier Score
1345
Forecasts
96
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Less than or equal to 59
18%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
24%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
23%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
23%
More than or equal to 90
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than or equal to 49
34%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
46%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
13%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
2%
More than or equal to 80
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
It looks like EUV had a very long development history before it achieved the speeds required for this question. China hasn't produced anything close yet, and they need machines that are at a pretty advanced stage to reach this goal. Unlike Chinese developments in LLMs, you can't just read Western research papers and have your smart computer scientists replicate what's already been done. Probably many trade secrets belonging to ASML they won't have access to, and a lot of stuff that needs to be invented from scratch. China has not shown a great capacity for inventing new technology compared to copying foreign inventions. And this is among the most complex inventions in the entire history of human civilization - there's a reason that nobody but ASML has been able to do it in any country, and I'm sure many would love to.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(-2%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
88%
(+2%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
Agree with @LogicCurve that collaboration b/w NK and Russia probably makes a test less likely rather than more. I could see an argument to the contrary but with Russian funds no doubt flowing to NK, less of an incentive to saber rattle to then de-escalate in exchange for aid or sanctions reduction; also Russia may not want NK to escalate if peace negotiations over Ukraine become a priority.
Files
Thanks @MrLittleTexas, however the multi-level game of chess of geopolitics may have a few more angles to consider.
Such as: The US (Biden) giving the green light for Ukraine to "use long-range missiles supplied by the US to strike Russia." (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c789x0y91vvo ) Which is a move that Russia considers a threat and states it had warned the West about doing this. "ATACMS can reach up to 300km (186 miles). Unnamed US officials have told the New York Times and the Washington Post that Biden's approval of Ukraine's use of the ATACMS came in response to Russia's decision to allow North Korean soldiers to fight in Ukraine."
Russia believing this would "represent the Nato military alliance's "direct participation" in the Ukraine war." Apparently senior Kremlin view this as a serious escalation.
I'm wondering if this might illicit a response from the Russia aligned North Koreans to undertake a nuclear test after all? Then post Biden admin, the Trump admin might step in to further deal with N. Korea, (as what happened last time).
Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia
https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c
The below article highlights the recent aggressive acts of N. Korea towards S. Korea, 7,000 balloons filled with trash, dumped on S. Korea since May.
North Korean leader calls for expanding his nuclear forces in the face of alleged US threats
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-nuclear-program-81806b946dffc9923c924a98959ab1ff
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Angola
3%
Kenya
5%
Ethiopia
2%
Nigeria
Long term bond ratings from Fitch are all in the B- range except for Ethiopia. This is a pretty short timeframe to go from that to default. Nigeria is given a positive outlook, Angola and Kenya a negative outlook.
Ethiopia has an RD rating for their recent default. Their debt is still being restructured from that initial default. I'm not sure they can even default a second time while they are already restructuring debt from the initial default? Regardless it looks like the IMF may be giving them a lifeline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
75%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
9%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
I would like at some point to dig into the 3GPP governing docs to see how hard would it be to get such a change approved. It seems like plenty of vendors and countries have not bought into O-RAN, so on its face a large international group with hundreds of existing members seems unlikely to buy in.
Additionally, I'm not sure to what extent these organizations operate in the same space. If - I'm not sure myself - 3GPP operates at a high level of abstraction, specifying the basic protocol, leaving certain implementation details to vendors, and O-RAN is in the business of standardizing these implementation details, then it would be unlikely that 3GPP would take on a new role of standardizing lower level details. I'm not sure how it works and this area is technical enough it would take some digging for me to figure it out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
I don't love questions with this long of a timeframe. Who knows what the world looks like more than two years out?
I have it at 5% in the other question about whether Huawei announces anything to do with O-RAN by October next year. This question is a higher bar - selling actual products, not just announcing a partnership or claiming they're working on something. But the timeframe is a little over two years, so there is some increased uncertainty. I'm just going 3x what I have in the other question. Slightly increased uncertainty about what happens >1 year out, but counteracted a little bit by the higher bar for this question
Files
1. Bonds are given B by Fitch - default in 12 months seems extremely unlikely. Maybe 2%
2. Stock M/M market collapse of 30% hasn't happened since 2008 - maybe 5% chance
3. Inflation is very high though - down from it's peak, but I give it a 10% of going in a really bad direction
These are not independent probabilities however, as e.g. a default and hyperinflation could coincide. So I'm going with 15%