RAND Forecasting Initiative

2022 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 1, 2022 01:33PM	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	-0.053588
Jul 1, 2022 01:25PM	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.028167
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	0.00008
Jun 4, 2022 04:00AM	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	0.019134
Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	0.006997
Jun 2, 2022 01:40PM	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	0.028706
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.090014
May 15, 2022 01:00PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	0.170994
May 6, 2022 09:00PM	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	0.042366
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.107627
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	-0.344913
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022	0.026639
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.225039
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022	-0.047889
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.553756