RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?	0.222603
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	0.062478
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.020083
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.015206
May 23, 2023 03:04PM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.000614
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.00035
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	-0.000589
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.000416
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.193556
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.254189
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.00107
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.0
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.048629
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	0.148689
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM	How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?	-0.366763
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.00176
Feb 3, 2023 05:00AM	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.054452
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	-0.020733
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.116994
Jan 3, 2023 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.000723

Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM

From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?

0.222603

Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM

Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)

0.062478

Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

0.020083

Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM

Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?

-0.015206