it is unlikely to be in the next month because the conflict and attacks on both side have done a lot of damage that it will take so much effort to resolve, which I think will not be easy to achieve in a month
1.24187
Relative Brier Score
45
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 24, 2023 09:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Oct 24, 2023 to Nov 24, 2023
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Intel
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
83%
(0%)
Less than 20%
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Intel
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
83%
(0%)
Less than 20%
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files