Albeit international political pressure and all sorts of geopolitical interferences, this is a historical and local conflict which has ignited again. I think the West does not have access to accurate information to predict its outcome. Past wars lasted more than one year, mostly, so I base my assumption on historical fact.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
There are already a vast amount of AI texts and images circulating and there will be more as AI is being implemented as a writing/imaging tool for all kinds of applications
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
I think this war is waged as a war on the long haul from both sides.
Files