Albeit international political pressure and all sorts of geopolitical interferences, this is a historical and local conflict which has ignited again. I think the West does not have access to accurate information to predict its outcome. Past wars lasted more than one year, mostly, so I base my assumption on historical fact.
0.460262
Relative Brier Score
3
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0
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Forecasting Activity
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
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Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
There are already a vast amount of AI texts and images circulating and there will be more as AI is being implemented as a writing/imaging tool for all kinds of applications
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
I think this war is waged as a war on the long haul from both sides.
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