Based on the assumption that the Iranian government does intend to destroy the state of Israel, an attack has never been this likely and strategically sound. Israel's involvement in operations in the Gaza strip and its political instability as a result of the terrorist attack of October 7, the country is more vulnerable than it ever was in peacetime - as demonstrated by the positioning of US forces in the eastern mediterranean that are used to deter a possible attack. In addition, thanks to the military backing of Russia and China, and having reigned in civil stability after the protests, Iran is in a stronger position than usual. The U.S. is also stretched thin between deterring a China attack in the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and Israel, and has growing political instability. All of these conditions have never been met simultaneously before.
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Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Feb 2, 2024 10:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Nov 2, 2023 to May 2, 2024
40%
No
Nov 2, 2023 to May 2, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Because Israel is stronger than Iran and has much stronger allies. Iran would essentially be making a bet with enormous risk for its survival and could prioritize ways of aggression below the threshold of open conflict - which it has mastered in the past decades.
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This forecast expired on Nov 13, 2023 06:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33%
Yes
Oct 13, 2023 to Nov 13, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
Current posture, communications, and strategy of the Israeli government suggests that a response will happen, and this response will last more than a month.
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Why might you be wrong?
Essentially, this question depends on how fast can the Israeli forces desarm the Gaza strip. They might, after weeks of fighting once a ground war started, can agree on a ceasefire with what is left of the Hamas authority.
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Why might you be wrong?
May is 5 months from now. Either Putin would have to have a rapidly degrading health in the meantime, and/or a rival for power to win an election or gather support to conduct a coup will have to take more time. Additionally, since this year's coup, Putin would have had the time to build up and patch weaknesses against a future coup again.