Pec58

The chances of him losing electorally are much lower than 5% given his total control of the electroral process since 2004 - I would consider it as below 1%. However, this question counts the possibility of demise, either by a coup or "natural" death, which are both possible and have been  taken into account in multiple scenarios and hypotheticals. Putin has shown some symptoms of health issues during broadcasts, and some in his inner circle have suggested that he was suffering from a critical disease like cancer or Parkinsons. Additionally, we've seen a coup attempt this year which almost ended his rule or at least broke Russia's system of central government - taking into account his unpopularity, the increasing costs of the war, and an army bogged down in Ukraine, the context is still ripe for another coup from someone with enough power. 

Based on the assumption that the Iranian government does intend to destroy the state of Israel, an attack has never been this likely and strategically sound. Israel's involvement in operations in the Gaza strip and its political instability as a result of the terrorist attack of October 7, the country is more vulnerable than it ever was in peacetime - as demonstrated by the positioning of US forces in the eastern mediterranean that are used to deter a possible attack. In addition, thanks to the military backing of Russia and China, and having reigned in civil stability after the protests, Iran is in a stronger position than usual. The U.S. is also stretched thin between deterring a China attack in the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and Israel, and has growing political instability. All of these conditions have never been met simultaneously before. 

Current posture, communications, and strategy of the Israeli government suggests that a response will happen, and this response will last more than a month.