Confirmed previous forecast
0.014582
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He has a really firm grip on the stakeholders in Moscow.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It would have to be a major change in the war or a major outbreak of internal dissonance to dislodge him. He's in for life.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
They've got a war going on, they're busy.
Files