Confirmed previous forecast
0.014582
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He has a really firm grip on the stakeholders in Moscow.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It would have to be a major change in the war or a major outbreak of internal dissonance to dislodge him. He's in for life.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
They've got a war going on, they're busy.
Files