RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 07:09AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	8%	-8%	-2%
No	100%	92%	+8%	+2%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025	Feb 11, 2025	4%	-4%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025	Feb 11, 2025	96%	+4%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
38 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 10:41PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	0%	9%	-9%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	0%	6%	-6%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 06:53AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 07:02AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025	Dec 15, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025	Dec 15, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 10:59AM UTC
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	12%	-11%	-2%
No	99%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	88%	+11%	+2%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 11:00AM UTC
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 11:16AM UTC
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025	Feb 21, 2025	22%	+43%	+0%
No	35%	Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025	Feb 21, 2025	78%	-43%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(15 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	57%	+10%	+0%
No	33%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	43%	-10%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 04:11AM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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