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Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt
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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 1% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 1% 7%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 07:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 07:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 07:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 07:25AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 49% 39%
No 51% 61%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 01, 2024 07:36AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 18%
No 98% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 82%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 66% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 51%
No 34% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 49%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 0% 4%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 3%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 33 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 08:28PM UTC
(23 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 51% Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 Feb 4, 2025 22%
No 49% Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025 Feb 4, 2025 78%
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