RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:19AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	8%	+62%	+1%
No	30%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	92%	-62%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	1%	9%	-8%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	1%	7%	-6%	0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:16PM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:17PM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	87%	+13%	+5%
No	0%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	13%	-13%	-5%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 12:17PM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
40 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:13PM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	86%	+14%	+3%
No	0%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	14%	-14%	-3%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:47PM UTC
(6 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	16%	+54%	+2%
No	30%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	84%	-54%	-2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:53PM UTC
(6 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	62%	41%	+21%	+1%
No	38%	59%	-21%	-1%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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