Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 04:16AM UTC
(3 hours ago)
Nov 22, 2024 04:16AM UTC
(3 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2026 | Feb 22, 2025 | 12% | -12% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2026 | Feb 22, 2025 | 88% | +12% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 04:31AM UTC
(3 hours ago)
Nov 22, 2024 04:31AM UTC
(3 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 1% | 13% | -12% | -1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 22% | 50% | -28% | -2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 77% | 33% | +44% | +4% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |