Confirmed previous forecast
0.836426
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
It is very unlikely that Turkey will drop it’s opposition to Swedish membership because it is extremely unlikely that Sweden will accept the Turkish demands involving Kurds living in Sweden.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The key is that there is, in my view, a 95% probability that there will not be an attack. Iran has been working on their nuclear weapons capability for decades and it is largely entombed under ground. So, who would instigate an attack and could it be successful. Israel ? The US ? Russia ? All unlikely.
The facilities are so dispersed and protected that beheading the Iranian nuclear program would be extremely difficult and dangerous.
Why might you be wrong?