Confirmed previous forecast
0.836426
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
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Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
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Answer
0%
Yes
It is very unlikely that Turkey will drop it’s opposition to Swedish membership because it is extremely unlikely that Sweden will accept the Turkish demands involving Kurds living in Sweden.
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Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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Why do you think you're right?
The key is that there is, in my view, a 95% probability that there will not be an attack. Iran has been working on their nuclear weapons capability for decades and it is largely entombed under ground. So, who would instigate an attack and could it be successful. Israel ? The US ? Russia ? All unlikely.
The facilities are so dispersed and protected that beheading the Iranian nuclear program would be extremely difficult and dangerous.
Why might you be wrong?