Confirmed previous forecast
-0.037215
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Putin is insane and can do anything, but this is very far out there
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An internal threat could make him scared and want to stir up something
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-18%)
Yes
95%
(+18%)
No
Too late
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Thought it was dead in total, not in a single attack?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Probably not,
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia is apparently saving up for a bigger attack some time soon. Could include big attacks vs Kyiv
also seems like air defense missiles are running low
Files