55th
Accuracy Rank

Reproach5675

About:
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-0.115594

Relative Brier Score

33

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 33 33 33
Comments 0 0 6 6 6
Questions Forecasted 0 1 11 11 11
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Reproach5675
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
94%
No
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025

Constant excercises in the area seems to be making it more and more likely...

Files
New Prediction
Reproach5675
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Reproach5675
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Reproach5675
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (-2%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97% (+2%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

less time left

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New Prediction
Reproach5675
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Reproach5675
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Reproach5675
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Reproach5675
earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
New Badge
Reproach5675
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Reproach5675
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

Putin is insane and can do anything, but this is very far out there

Files
Why might you be wrong?
An internal threat could make him scared and want to stir up something
Files
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