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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Dec 27, 2024 01:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
94%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(+2%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
were almost there
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2024 12:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
94%
No
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Constant excercises in the area seems to be making it more and more likely...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
(-2%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97%
(+2%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
less time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
