Confirmed previous forecast
-0.115594
Relative Brier Score
33
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
(-2%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97%
(+2%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
less time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Putin is insane and can do anything, but this is very far out there
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An internal threat could make him scared and want to stir up something
Files
Constant excercises in the area seems to be making it more and more likely...