RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?	-0.000343
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	0.0099
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	0.043464
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC	On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center?	0.111305
May 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023?	0.004582
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.000696
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	-0.002038
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	0.009268
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	0.058464
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.076637
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.0065
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	-0.017602
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.009508
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	-0.01541
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?	-0.073116
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.002961
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?	-0.015677
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.003213
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.011112
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.000766

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